Predicting the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River watershed

Abstract Climate change affects the environment and human life across planet it is expected that negative consequences will be large, especially in developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. The objective of this study was to predict impact future climate on streamflow Ugam watershed (Chirchik River Basin (CRB)) using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). outputs Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), combination with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, were used records for period 2019−2048. SWAT model calibrated validated from through observed daily flow data 2007 2011. simulate results show stream discharge decrease by approximately 42% within thirty years, a 1.4 °C increase temperature 286 mm precipitation. peak point 40.32 m 3 /s 2037 whereas lowest discharge, predicted 2048, accounts 22.54 /s. Our enables understand water resources river adaptive capacity users managers region.